Silver Exhausted?
Podcast: Download (Duration: 20:44 — 14.2MB)
Markets change character as metals run out of steam
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Bob Hoye
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The monthly publication for financial institutions was started in January 1982. This competently covers the stock market, the yield curve, credit spreads as well as metal and energy prices. Bob, as chief financial strategist, writes the weekly overview - Pivotal Events
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Silver-Gold ratio will bottom around 32-30 and silver around $45–IMO. Beware they could both fall to reach this level. Puts are good.
I have never heard anyone explain more clearly than Bob what can or does happen to gold in a credit contraction and actually give sound reasons and historical examples of why this is so. I think his real price of gold concept that has been mentioned elsewhere (but not usually as clearly as by Bob) has really come into force over the last few years and explained why gold stock investors were somewhat mystified why their stocks performed pretty poorly in the credit boom to 2007 despite the nominal increase in the price of gold and the excellent performance in many of these stocks since the end of 2008.
Bob has really painted himself into a corner by calling for a general market downturn for far too long and underestmating the power of the Fed and other central banks to depreciate their currencies, especially the US dollar. It’s a shame because I have listened to Bob over the last 2 years and he was my favourite Howestreet interview for quite a while (and also more wise in his explanations than many other people elsewhere). He was pretty right on with his timing on the minor downturns in 2010 for instance but they didn’t turn out to be THE major one. And he was spot on with the credit crunch of 2007-08 if I recall correctly. So I listen to Bob even if I don’t always agree with him – and I try to think for how long can he be wrong? My guess is he can be wrong for a while but probably not in the long run. I see Bob as more of a long term market forecaster.
Silver Bug -
Agreed. Bob is a decent man. I make light of his sometimes high-brow commentary, but nobody can deny his expertise or experience.
I think the problem that Bob (and many other commentators, btw) are running into is that there are major, Fundamental differences between the 1930′s/1970′s and today. That simply cannot be denied. We no longer live with any ‘standards’, and the government/financial complex has no compunction whatsoever about outright Lying to the American public – or the world for that matter.
Bob has mistakenly discounted the ability and intent of an out-of-control fiscal hierarchy to manipulate the market per political direction, based on a keen knowledge of public sentiment and the desire for evermore largesse from the tax coffers. Does our Debt problem suggest anything else…?
‘Outbreak of sound money’ as Bob puts it…? Really? I have seen none as yet from 2008, have you?
Once again, I have hedged gold and silver with puts that have expired worthless. The momentum peak foreskin buster is gonna be right some day, I guess.
FOR ALL THE HISTORIANS OUT THERE…..
QUESTION: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME A COUNTRY DEFAULTED ON ITS DEBT?
DRUMROLLL PLEASE BOB AND PHIL
ANSWER: THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA – 1933 FIXED GOLD PRICE UP FROM $20/OUNCE TO $35/OUNCE AND DEVALUED US DOLLAR BY 66%
SO MUCH FOR SOUND MONEY
GET READY FOR SOME FIREWORKS IN THE COMING MONTHS
So Nixon Closing the Gold Window in 1972 does not qualify? AS far as the US is concerned.
And if you will take a look at Argentina & Zimbabwe in the last 10 years or so you’ll see much more recent Defaults